July Recap

July was our first month back with HWD and it was a success.  We had the best winning percentage among pros with at least 1-2 plays per day in the month of July.  The only thing I dislike about being documented at HWD is how other cappers rate their picks.  It's unrealistic to rate every pick you recommend at a 5 or better.  This creates big swings for your client rather than a steady approach to your goals which is what we strive for.  All you have to do is look at the bottom of the rankings each month and it will show the all or nothing capping that some of the site members engage in.  Don't get me wrong, the accolades are nice, however, I'm not going to change my approach to be the top "unit" company at the expense of my consistent approach.  Hopefully, over the long term this will be obvious.  Thanks again, and let's keep it moving through the end of July.

When Right Is Wrong!

I took pride this past weekend in one particular play that I chose.  I liked Baltimore over Denver +10.5.  However, I am humble and can admit that I won the play despite my assumptions as to how the game would actually play out.  It's been very clear to me in watching Payton Manning this season that he is mentally as sharp as he has always been.  However, physically there have been plays that he just can't make at this stage in his career given his injuries and age.  In particular his inability to throw the deep ball.  I thought that the Raven defense would let him dink and dunk but not allow him to control the game.  If you remove the 2 kick returns for touchdowns and this was a pretty dominating performance by the Ravens.  I also thought the weather would hold back the Broncos. I even went as far as to research the effect on the body at temperatures in the single digits.  All of this being said..you might think I would have liked the under on this one as well.  I don't like unders in playoff games when teams lay it all on the line and play in a manner in which they would not throughout the regular season.  My point to this article is the following.  The manner in which the game is played out is much different from what I assumed and researched.....However, the outcome and subsequent profit on the play was exactly what I thought....and that's all that matters in the end.

Public Fade or Public Enemy?

In addition to the hard work that I put in on my own plays I also like to follow the progress and trends of other cappers across the country.  Paying attention to what others do successfully and poorly only helps me do what I do better.  Over the years I have noticed a trend of closed mind cappers that really bugs me.  It's a need to always be "cute" or "sexy" with a pick and the inability to ever admit that a large public play is a good investment for the client.  Several cappers rarely ever suggest home favorites.  Instead, they pick their spot and try to hit a couple dogs a week while missing opportunity after opportunity for the client.  As you can see, I suggest many home favorites and ML's.  I do suggest dogs from time to time.  No discrimination.  It's just part of my conservative nature to see a steady and quality profit over time.  The public is your friend...just not a friend that needs to come over every day. Thanks and good luck!!

So It Begins!

The long awaited event of opening night in the NFL is upon us and is considered the beginning of the busy season. This is the most rewarding time of the year for a bettor and a capper. It's a long season...remember the tired old cliche.....It's a marathon not a race!!

Just wanted to expand on today's pick of the White Sox over the Twins. I liked Jake Peavey to take command after an emabarrassing loss on Tuesday night in which the Sox gave up 18 runs. Good teams and good pitchers usually come back with a chip on their shoulder the next day and that's exactly what they did winning 6-2.

In our loss I was real surprised at the second bad outing in a row from Adam Wainwright as he gave up 5 early runs to the Mets and the Cardinals could not figure out the knuckle ball from Dickey. Wainwright typically comes back real strong after a bad outing especially at home. Many times the correct pick just loses.  Just part of the betting lifestyle. Good luck tonight as we kickoff the busy season!

VALUE!!

I will try to do write ups on picks that may seem a little out of the ordinary.  No reason to do so when a pick is obvious.  Today I just wanted to discuss my pick on Sunday which was Miami over Milwaukee ML (+125).  Milwaukee was throwing a rookie pitcher Fiers whom has not been real solid as of late.  Miami pitched Nolasko.  He is coming off of a shutout and pitches pretty decent at home.  With the trending of both of these pitchers I really felt like this line was pretty far off and presented great value.  Rookie pitchers are starting to hit the wall over the league and Fiers is no different.  I generally like to stay within the 140's (+140 to -140) on the ML.  The value comes into play when a matchup should be outside of this range but is subsequently put between these #'s.    

Welcome

 Thanks so much for your patience while we are get things in order logistically before the start of football this weekend. To my existing clients, thanks for all of your feedback and willingness to follow me to Handicappers Watchdog. It is an extremely easy site to navigate. No unnecessary fluff, just everything we need. To new clients, I always try to have my picks out by 9 AM CST. On occasion this my differ due to late movement. Looking forward to a great year. Please feel free to contact me at blvdsportspicks@gmail.com with any issues or concerns...Good Luck!!